We made a sale this morning. It came in from the Internet from Denmark. The product is only $50 but it is exciting to make a sale to someone you have never met for a product that is just bits any bytes. So, of course I have been walking around all day with my chest out thinking I was destined for greatness. It reminded me of the article I was reading last night in the Annals of Improbable Research. No it wasn't the one about how yawning could be closely connected to sexuality including facts that Chimps that yawn more often tend to have higher levels of testosterone and are often higher in the social ladder when it comes to reproduction. I have been yawning more since I read the article. The article I was reading was about copying of citations. It included this little passage about greatness.

Greatness? Or Just Simple Probability?

During the "Manhattan Project"(in which scientists created the first nuclear bomb), Enrico Fermi, the physicist, asked General Groves, the head of the project: "What is the definition of a great general?" Groves replied that any general who had won five battles in a row might safely be called great. Fermi then asked how many generals are great. Groves said about three out of every hundred. Fermi conjectured that considering opposing forces for most battles are roughly equal in strength, the chance of winning one battle is 1/2, and the chance of winning five battles is 1/2^5 which is 1/32. "So you are right General," said Enrico Fermi. "About three out of every hundred. Mathematical probability, not genius."

So I must always factor whether anyone considered to be great is just among the lucky - including and especially myself.

References
1. Do Copied Citations Create Renowned Papers, MV Simkin and V.P. Roychodhury, Annals of Improbable Research | January-February 2005
2. Greatness?, Dan Housman, Hypercritical Dan Housman, March 2005